Ross River virus predictive modelling in Victoria - bringing human, horse, mosquito and environmental data together

Authors: Firestone S, Lynch S, Cutcher Z, Rowe S, Clothier H, Williamson E
Publication: Proceedings of the Australian Veterinary Association (AVA) Annual Conferences, Volume 2014 AVA Annual Conference, Perth, Issue Public Health / Equine, May 2014
Publisher: Australian Veterinary Association

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Abstract: Ross River virus is a mosquito-borne virus endemic to Australia. Human infection causes arthritis, myalgia and rash lasting 3–6 months. Horses can also be clinically infected, their role in amplifying the virus is unclear. The disease has a complex epidemiology including vertical transmission in several species of mosquitoes and maintenance in wildlife reservoirs. In Victoria, a long-term average of 150 human cases are notified in non-epidemic years. In 2010/2011, an outbreak in humans coincided with reporting of equine cases across Victoria. Outbreak years coincide with climatic conditions conducive to mosquito population growth and thus increased transmission of disease. We developed two local prediction models for human RRV notifications in Victoria and analysed the spatiotemporal distribution of reported equine RRV cases. Detailed multivariable modelling findings are presented and the implications explained. The results advance understanding of the drivers of Ross River virus activity in Southern Australia and inform estimation of the anticipated effects of climate and environmental change.

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